── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Brandon Nakashima
Daniil Medvedev
41%59%
Hard: 32% / 68%
Clay: 27% / 73%
Grass: 49% / 51%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Brandon Nakashima
91th · elite
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Return
Brandon Nakashima
69th · average
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#18
model rank
#8
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
RUS
188cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Brandon Nakashima■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
Clay0–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Brandon Nakashima | 6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | Hard | F | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 7-6(1) |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 6-1 6-4 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-3 |