── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Brandon Nakashima 83% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Brandon Nakashima
Elias Ymer
83%17%
Hard: 82% / 18%
Clay: 81% / 19%
Grass: 76% / 24%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Brandon Nakashima
89th · strong
Elias Ymer
4th · poor
Return
Brandon Nakashima
46th · average
Elias Ymer
14th · poor

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#42
model rank
#168
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
SWE
188cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Brandon NakashimaElias Ymer
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2026-02-23AcapulcoHardR32Brandon Nakashima6-3 6-4