── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Brandon Nakashima 63% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Brandon Nakashima
Jordan Thompson
63%37%
Hard: 61% / 39%
Clay: 83% / 17%
Grass: 59% / 41%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Brandon Nakashima
89th · strong
Jordan Thompson
58th · average
Return
Brandon Nakashima
46th · average
Jordan Thompson
64th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#42
model rank
#80
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Brandon Nakashima■ Jordan Thompson
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–1
Clay1–0
Grass1–1
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | Tokyo | Hard | R32 | Brandon Nakashima | 6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-2 |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Brandon Nakashima | W/O |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Brandon Nakashima | 6-3 6-2 6-2 |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Jordan Thompson | 2-6 2-6 6-4 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2022-07-25 | Atlanta | Hard | R32 | Brandon Nakashima | 7-6(5) 3-6 6-3 |
| 2022-02-07 | Dallas | Hard | R16 | Jordan Thompson | 7-5 7-6(1) |
| 2021-07-26 | Atlanta | Hard | QF | Brandon Nakashima | 7-6(5) 7-5 |
| 2021-07-19 | Los Cabos | Hard | QF | Brandon Nakashima | 6-3 4-6 7-6(4) |