── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Brandon Nakashima
Alex De Minaur
43%57%
Hard: 40% / 60%
Clay: 25% / 75%
Grass: 41% / 59%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Brandon Nakashima
91th · elite
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Brandon Nakashima
69th · average
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#18
model rank
#10
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Brandon Nakashima■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Grass1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Washington | Hard | QF | Brandon Nakashima | 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | QF | Brandon Nakashima | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2025-07-21 | Washington | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-10-18 | Antwerp | Hard | R32 | Brandon Nakashima | 6-4 6-0 |