── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 71% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Brandon Nakashima
Alex De Minaur
29%71%
Hard: 27% / 73%
Clay: 26% / 74%
Grass: 38% / 62%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Brandon Nakashima
89th · strong
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Brandon Nakashima
46th · average
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#42
model rank
#8
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Brandon Nakashima■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-21 | Washington | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-10-18 | Antwerp | Hard | R32 | Brandon Nakashima | 6-4 6-0 |