── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Brandon Nakashima
Holger Rune
38%62%
Hard: 37% / 63%
Clay: 21% / 79%
Grass: 65% / 35%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Brandon Nakashima
89th · strong
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Return
Brandon Nakashima
46th · average
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#42
model rank
#20
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
DEN
188cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Brandon Nakashima■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | Acapulco | Hard | R16 | Brandon Nakashima | 3-0 RET |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Brandon Nakashima | 6-2 6-1 6-4 |
| 2023-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R64 | Brandon Nakashima | 6-0 6-2 |
| 2021-11-08 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Brandon Nakashima | 3-4(3) 4-1 4-1 4-3(1) |