── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Adrian Mannarino a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jesper De Jong
Adrian Mannarino
49%51%
Hard: 31% / 69%
Clay: 92% / 8%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jesper De Jong
26th · below avg
Adrian Mannarino
26th · below avg
Return
Jesper De Jong
46th · average
Adrian Mannarino
59th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#112
model rank
#107
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
NED
country
FRA
180cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jesper De Jong■ Adrian Mannarino
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Cagliari CH | Clay | R16 | Jesper De Jong | 6-3 3-6 6-1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Beijing | Hard | Q2 | Adrian Mannarino | 6-4 6-4 |