── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Camilo Ugo Carabelli a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jesper De Jong
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
49%51%
Hard: 48% / 52%
Clay: 54% / 46%
Grass: 73% / 27%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jesper De Jong
32th · below avg
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
24th · below avg
Return
Jesper De Jong
44th · average
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
50th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#84
model rank
#82
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
NED
country
ARG
180cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jesper De Jong■ Camilo Ugo Carabelli
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay3–3
Hard1–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-14 | Bastad | Clay | SF | Jesper De Jong | 6-3 7-6(3) |
| 2024-10-07 | Villa Maria CH | Clay | F | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 7-6(3) 3-6 6-4 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | Q3 | Jesper De Jong | 7-6(3) 3-6 7-6(7) |
| 2023-01-16 | Piracicaba CH | Clay | R16 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 7-6(0) 6-1 |
| 2023-01-09 | Tigre 2 CH | Clay | R16 | Jesper De Jong | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2021-05-24 | Oeiras 4 CH | Clay | R32 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2020-11-16 | Guayaquil CH | Clay | Q2 | Jesper De Jong | 6-1 6-3 |