── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jesper De Jong
Matteo Arnaldi
42%58%
Hard: 34% / 66%
Clay: 41% / 59%
Grass: 52% / 48%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jesper De Jong
32th · below avg
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Jesper De Jong
44th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#84
model rank
#54
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
NED
country
ITA
180cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jesper De Jong■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–2
Clay1–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | Q1 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-4 7-6(5) |
| 2023-07-24 | Umag | Clay | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2022-10-03 | Alicante CH | Hard | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2022-04-25 | Rome CH | Clay | R16 | Jesper De Jong | 6-1 3-6 6-3 |