── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jesper De Jong
Matteo Arnaldi
44%56%
Hard: 36% / 64%
Clay: 39% / 61%
Grass: 59% / 41%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jesper De Jong
26th · below avg
Matteo Arnaldi
30th · below avg
Return
Jesper De Jong
46th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#112
model rank
#84
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
NED
country
ITA
180cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jesper De Jong■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–2
Clay1–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | Q1 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-4 7-6(5) |
| 2023-07-24 | Umag | Clay | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2022-10-03 | Alicante CH | Hard | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2022-04-25 | Rome CH | Clay | R16 | Jesper De Jong | 6-1 3-6 6-3 |