── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Lorenzo Musetti a slight 55% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Lorenzo Musetti
Alexander Bublik
55%45%
Hard: 50% / 50%
Clay: 71% / 29%
Grass: 41% / 59%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Lorenzo Musetti
78th · strong
Alexander Bublik
91th · elite
Return
Lorenzo Musetti
90th · strong
Alexander Bublik
49th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#19
model rank
#28
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
KAZ
185cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Lorenzo Musetti■ Alexander Bublik
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–2
Grass1–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | Hong Kong | Hard | F | Alexander Bublik | 7-6(2) 6-3 |
| 2024-06-10 | Stuttgart | Grass | QF | Lorenzo Musetti | 4-6 6-1 1-0 RET |
| 2024-01-08 | Adelaide | Hard | QF | Alexander Bublik | 6-3 6-7(4) 7-5 |
| 2022-06-13 | Queen's Club | Grass | R32 | Alexander Bublik | 6-3 0-0 RET |