── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Lorenzo Musetti a slight 54% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Lorenzo Musetti
Casper Ruud
54%46%
Hard: 61% / 39%
Clay: 42% / 58%
Grass: 82% / 18%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Lorenzo Musetti
77th · strong
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Return
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Casper Ruud
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#12
model rank
#11
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
NOR
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Lorenzo Musetti■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–3
Hard1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R16 | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2023-07-17 | Bastad | Clay | SF | Casper Ruud | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | R16 | Lorenzo Musetti | 4-6 6-4 6-4 |
| 2019-05-13 | Rome Masters | Clay | Q1 | Casper Ruud | 6-1 6-4 |