── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Lorenzo Musetti
Alex De Minaur
42%58%
Hard: 39% / 61%
Clay: 60% / 40%
Grass: 35% / 65%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Lorenzo Musetti
77th · strong
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#12
model rank
#8
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
AUS
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Lorenzo Musetti■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay2–0
Grass1–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-5 3-6 7-5 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | SF | Lorenzo Musetti | 1-6 6-4 7-6(4) |
| 2024-06-17 | Queen's Club | Grass | R32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1-6 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Alex De Minaur | 3-6 6-3 6-0 6-3 |