── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Korda a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Lorenzo Musetti
Sebastian Korda
49%51%
Hard: 42% / 58%
Clay: 80% / 20%
Grass: 49% / 51%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Lorenzo Musetti
76th · strong
Sebastian Korda
90th · strong
Return
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#17
model rank
#14
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
USA
185cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Lorenzo Musetti■ Sebastian Korda
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
Clay2–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | Athens | Hard | SF | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-0 5-7 7-5 |
| 2022-09-19 | Metz | Hard | R16 | Sebastian Korda | 6-3 7-6(6) |
| 2022-05-02 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-11-08 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Sebastian Korda | 4-2 4-3(4) 4-2 |
| 2021-05-17 | Lyon | Clay | R16 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-3 1-6 6-4 |