── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Lorenzo Musetti 81% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Lorenzo Musetti
Holger Rune
81%19%
Hard: 75% / 25%
Clay: 54% / 46%
Grass: 62% / 38%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Lorenzo Musetti
78th · strong
Holger Rune
79th · strong
Return
Lorenzo Musetti
90th · strong
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#19
model rank
#127
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
DEN
185cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Lorenzo Musetti■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–1
Grass0–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-5 3-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 6-2 7-6(5) |
| 2023-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | QF | Holger Rune | 6-4 7-5 |