── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Lorenzo Musetti 75% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Lorenzo Musetti
Matteo Arnaldi
75%25%
Hard: 77% / 23%
Clay: 66% / 34%
Grass: 90% / 10%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Lorenzo Musetti
76th · strong
Matteo Arnaldi
29th · below avg
Return
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#17
model rank
#86
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
ITA
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Lorenzo Musetti■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
Clay3–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Washington | Hard | R32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-0 3-1 RET |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2023-07-17 | Bastad | Clay | R16 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-3 4-6 7-6(6) |
| 2023-05-08 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2019-04-08 | Barletta CH | Clay | R32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-2 6-0 |