── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jack Draper 67% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jack Draper
Sebastian Baez
67%33%
Hard: 75% / 25%
Clay: 64% / 36%
Grass: 91% / 9%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jack Draper
95th · elite
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Return
Jack Draper
94th · elite
Sebastian Baez
78th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#34
model rank
#89
Clay
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
GBR
country
ARG
193cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jack Draper■ Sebastian Baez
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Hard1–0
Clay1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Jack Draper | 6-2 6-2 2-1 RET |
| 2024-01-08 | Adelaide | Hard | R32 | Jack Draper | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2023-04-10 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Jack Draper | 6-3 7-5 |