── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Lorenzo Musetti 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jack Draper
Lorenzo Musetti
41%59%
Hard: 50% / 50%
Clay: 33% / 67%
Grass: 56% / 44%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jack Draper
95th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
78th · strong
Return
Jack Draper
94th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
90th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#34
model rank
#19
Clay
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
GBR
country
ITA
193cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jack Draper■ Lorenzo Musetti
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard3–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | SF | Jack Draper | 6-3 7-6(4) |
| 2024-10-21 | Vienna | Hard | SF | Jack Draper | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-11-06 | Sofia | Hard | R16 | Jack Draper | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2022-11-07 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Jack Draper | 4-1 4-0 4-3(3) |