── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jack Draper 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jack Draper
Matteo Arnaldi
66%34%
Hard: 75% / 25%
Clay: 48% / 52%
Grass: 92% / 8%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jack Draper
95th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
29th · below avg
Return
Jack Draper
94th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#34
model rank
#86
Clay
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
GBR
country
ITA
193cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jack Draper■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | QF | Jack Draper | 6-0 6-4 |