── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tomas Machac
Tommy Paul
38%62%
Hard: 41% / 59%
Clay: 30% / 70%
Grass: 20% / 80%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tomas Machac
72th · strong
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Return
Tomas Machac
82th · strong
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#35
model rank
#14
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CZE
country
USA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tomas Machac■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
Clay0–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Adelaide | Hard | SF | Tomas Machac | 2-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-7(5) 6-4 |
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R16 | Tomas Machac | 3-6 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-09-25 | Tokyo | Hard | R16 | Tomas Machac | 2-6 6-3 7-6(4) |