── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 91% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tomas Machac
Carlos Alcaraz
9%91%
Hard: 11% / 89%
Clay: 8% / 92%
Grass: 4% / 96%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tomas Machac
72th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Return
Tomas Machac
82th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#35
model rank
#2
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CZE
country
ESP
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tomas Machac■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard1–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Barcelona | Clay | R16 | Tomas Machac | W/O |
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | QF | Tomas Machac | 7-6(5) 7-5 |
| 2024-09-11 | Davis Cup Finals RR: CZE vs ESP | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(3) 6-1 RET |