── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tomas Machac 76% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tomas Machac
Luca Nardi
76%24%
Hard: 67% / 33%
Clay: 78% / 22%
Grass: 80% / 20%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tomas Machac
57th · average
Luca Nardi
9th · poor
Return
Tomas Machac
57th · average
Luca Nardi
33th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#67
model rank
#175
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
CZE
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tomas Machac■ Luca Nardi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Tomas Machac | 6-3 6-1 6-1 |
| 2023-10-02 | Mouilleron-Le-Captif CH | Hard | QF | Tomas Machac | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-10-31 | Bergamo CH | Hard | R32 | Luca Nardi | 7-5 7-6(3) |
| 2020-11-16 | Ortisei CH | Hard | R32 | Tomas Machac | 7-6(4) 7-6(8) |