── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tomas Machac 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tomas Machac
Matteo Arnaldi
59%41%
Hard: 73% / 27%
Clay: 35% / 65%
Grass: 72% / 28%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tomas Machac
72th · strong
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Tomas Machac
82th · strong
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#35
model rank
#54
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CZE
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tomas Machac■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Tomas Machac | 6-2 1-6 6-3 |
| 2024-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Tomas Machac | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2023-02-27 | Dubai | Hard | Q2 | Tomas Machac | 6-0 6-1 |