── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 67% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Flavio Cobolli
Daniil Medvedev
33%67%
Hard: 14% / 86%
Clay: 53% / 47%
Grass: 31% / 69%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Flavio Cobolli
48th · average
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Return
Flavio Cobolli
60th · average
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#25
model rank
#5
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
RUS
183cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Flavio Cobolli■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Flavio Cobolli | 6-3 5-7 6-4 |
| 2024-09-26 | Beijing | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-4 6-3 |