── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Flavio Cobolli a slight 54% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Flavio Cobolli
Frances Tiafoe
54%46%
Hard: 33% / 67%
Clay: 65% / 35%
Grass: 53% / 47%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Flavio Cobolli
48th · average
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Return
Flavio Cobolli
60th · average
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#25
model rank
#31
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
USA
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Flavio Cobolli■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–3
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2026-02-23 | Acapulco | Hard | F | Flavio Cobolli | 7-6(4) 6-4 |
| 2025-07-21 | Washington | Hard | R16 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-02-12 | Delray Beach | Hard | QF | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-2 |