── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Flavio Cobolli 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Flavio Cobolli
Matteo Arnaldi
64%36%
Hard: 58% / 42%
Clay: 56% / 44%
Grass: 83% / 17%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Flavio Cobolli
48th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Flavio Cobolli
60th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#25
model rank
#54
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Flavio Cobolli■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay3–3
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | SF | Flavio Cobolli | W/O |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Flavio Cobolli | 6-3 6-3 6-7(6) 6-1 |
| 2023-07-24 | Umag | Clay | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2022-08-01 | Cordenons CH | Clay | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 5-7 6-3 |
| 2022-05-23 | Vicenza CH | Clay | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-4 4-6 6-4 |
| 2021-10-11 | Ercolano CH | Clay | R16 | Flavio Cobolli | 6-1 3-6 6-2 |