── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jacob Fearnley
Matteo Arnaldi
49%51%
Hard: 51% / 49%
Clay: 25% / 75%
Grass: 86% / 14%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jacob Fearnley
11th · poor
Matteo Arnaldi
29th · below avg
Return
Jacob Fearnley
91th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#91
model rank
#86
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
GBR
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jacob Fearnley■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | Q1 | Jacob Fearnley | 7-5 6-2 |