── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 95% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Gael Monfils
95%5%
Hard: 92% / 8%
Clay: 96% / 4%
Grass: 94% / 6%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Gael Monfils
60th · average
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Gael Monfils
73th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#73
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
FRA
183cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Gael Monfils
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 7-5 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Gael Monfils | 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2024-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-1 |