── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 98% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Fabio Fognini
98%2%
Hard: 98% / 2%
Clay: 96% / 4%
Grass: 97% / 3%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Fabio Fognini
4th · poor
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Fabio Fognini
43th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#148
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
183cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Fabio Fognini
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Clay2–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-7(5) 7-5 2-6 6-1 |
| 2023-02-20 | Rio De Janeiro | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(5) 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022-02-14 | Rio de Janeiro | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 7-5 |