── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 97% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Roberto Bautista Agut
97%3%
Hard: 96% / 4%
Clay: 96% / 4%
Grass: 89% / 11%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Roberto Bautista Agut
34th · below avg
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Roberto Bautista Agut
72th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#122
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ESP
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Roberto Bautista Agut
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Clay1–0
Hard1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-16 | Queen's Club | Grass | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-04-17 | Barcelona | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-0 |