── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 92% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Grigor Dimitrov
92%8%
Hard: 88% / 12%
Clay: 92% / 8%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Grigor Dimitrov
87th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Grigor Dimitrov
80th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#41
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
BUL
183cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Grigor Dimitrov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–2
Grass1–0
Clay1–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2024-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | QF | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R16 | Grigor Dimitrov | 5-7 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-04-24 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 7-5 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-3 |