── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 97% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Yoshihito Nishioka
97%3%
Hard: 96% / 4%
Clay: 98% / 2%
Grass: 98% / 2%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Yoshihito Nishioka
20th · below avg
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Yoshihito Nishioka
57th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#128
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
JPN
183cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Yoshihito Nishioka
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-0 6-1 6-4 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |