── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 74% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Daniil Medvedev
74%26%
Hard: 70% / 30%
Clay: 85% / 15%
Grass: 86% / 14%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#8
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
RUS
183cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–2
Grass2–1
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 7-6(3) |
| 2024-09-26 | Beijing | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(1) 6-3 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(5) 6-1 |
| 2023-11-13 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(3) 6-1 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-3 6-3 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2021-06-28 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-1 6-2 |