── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 91% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Karen Khachanov
91%9%
Hard: 90% / 10%
Clay: 88% / 12%
Grass: 88% / 12%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Karen Khachanov
89th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Karen Khachanov
75th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#34
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
RUS
183cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Karen Khachanov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
Clay4–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Doha | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(3) 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 3-6 7-5 |
| 2024-09-26 | Beijing | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2023-04-24 | Madrid Masters | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 7-5 |
| 2022-07-18 | Hamburg | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-0 6-2 |
| 2022-05-23 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-4 6-4 |