── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 89% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Cameron Norrie
89%11%
Hard: 88% / 12%
Clay: 89% / 11%
Grass: 93% / 7%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Cameron Norrie
66th · average
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Cameron Norrie
78th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#39
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
GBR
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Cameron Norrie
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–2
Grass1–0
Clay2–1
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Cameron Norrie | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-3 6-3 |
| 2023-02-20 | Rio De Janeiro | Clay | F | Cameron Norrie | 5-7 6-4 7-5 |
| 2023-02-13 | Buenos Aires | Clay | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022-08-15 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | QF | Cameron Norrie | 7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-4 |
| 2022-05-02 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-7(4) 6-3 |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-08-30 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 6-3 |