── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 89% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Alexander Bublik
89%11%
Hard: 88% / 12%
Clay: 90% / 10%
Grass: 84% / 16%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Alexander Bublik
51th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#24
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
KAZ
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Alexander Bublik
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-0 |