── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 96% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Reilly Opelka
96%4%
Hard: 94% / 6%
Clay: 97% / 3%
Grass: 97% / 3%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Reilly Opelka
96th · elite
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Reilly Opelka
0th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#100
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
USA
183cm
height
211cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Reilly Opelka
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 7-5 6-4 |