── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 86% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Taylor Fritz
86%14%
Hard: 82% / 18%
Clay: 92% / 8%
Grass: 76% / 24%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Taylor Fritz
97th · elite
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Taylor Fritz
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#15
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
USA
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Taylor Fritz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–1
Grass1–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(2) 7-5 6-3 |
| 2025-09-24 | Tokyo | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Taylor Fritz | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 5-7 6-3 7-6(6) |
| 2024-09-20 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 7-5 |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-2 |