── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 86% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Tommy Paul
86%14%
Hard: 85% / 15%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#14
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
USA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–2
Clay2–0
Grass1–0
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(6) 6-4 7-5 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-0 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6(7) |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2 |
| 2023-08-14 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | QF | Tommy Paul | 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3 |