── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 93% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Arthur Rinderknech
93%7%
Hard: 92% / 8%
Clay: 94% / 6%
Grass: 94% / 6%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Arthur Rinderknech
87th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Arthur Rinderknech
19th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#49
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
FRA
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Arthur Rinderknech
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–0
Grass2–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(6) 6-3 6-2 |
| 2026-02-16 | Doha | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 7-6(5) |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(3) 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Queen's Club | Grass | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2023-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-6 7-5 7-6(3) |
| 2021-08-30 | Us Open | Hard | R64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(6) 4-6 6-1 6-4 |