── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 94% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Hubert Hurkacz
94%6%
Hard: 95% / 5%
Clay: 87% / 13%
Grass: 86% / 14%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Hubert Hurkacz
94th · elite
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Hubert Hurkacz
48th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#60
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
POL
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Hubert Hurkacz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-03 | Rotterdam | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-7(5) 6-3 |
| 2023-08-14 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 2-6 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3-6 7-6(2) 7-6(3) |
| 2022-03-21 | Miami Masters | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(5) 7-6(2) |