── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 97% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Andrea Vavassori
97%3%
Hard: 95% / 5%
Clay: 95% / 5%
Grass: 98% / 2%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Andrea Vavassori
47th · average
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Andrea Vavassori
18th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#120
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
183cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Andrea Vavassori
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Clay1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-03 | Rotterdam | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2024-02-12 | Buenos Aires | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(1) 6-1 |