── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 90% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Denis Shapovalov
90%10%
Hard: 83% / 17%
Clay: 96% / 4%
Grass: 97% / 3%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
61th · average
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#49
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
CAN
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
Clay1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(3) 2-1 RET |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-05-29 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-4 6-2 |