── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 87% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Casper Ruud
87%13%
Hard: 90% / 10%
Clay: 71% / 29%
Grass: 98% / 2%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Casper Ruud
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#11
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
NOR
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–1
Clay1–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 7-6(2) |
| 2025-09-24 | Tokyo | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 3-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-11-11 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Casper Ruud | 6-1 7-5 |
| 2023-09-27 | Beijing | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-08-29 | Us Open | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 2-6 7-6(1) 6-3 |
| 2022-03-21 | Miami Masters | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2021-04-05 | Marbella | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-4 |