── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 94% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Corentin Moutet
94%6%
Hard: 91% / 9%
Clay: 95% / 5%
Grass: 96% / 4%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Corentin Moutet
24th · below avg
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Corentin Moutet
89th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#101
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
FRA
183cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Corentin Moutet
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-4 6-1 |