── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 82% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Felix Auger Aliassime
82%19%
Hard: 79% / 21%
Clay: 87% / 13%
Grass: 91% / 9%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Felix Auger Aliassime
81th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#9
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
CAN
183cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Felix Auger Aliassime
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–3
Clay2–0
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-3 6-1 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-10-24 | Basel | Hard | SF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2022-09-16 | Davis Cup Finals RR: ESP vs CAN | Hard | RR | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2 |
| 2021-08-30 | Us Open | Hard | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3 3-1 RET |