── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 93% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Yibing Wu
93%7%
Hard: 91% / 9%
Clay: 96% / 4%
Grass: 99% / 1%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Yibing Wu
34th · below avg
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Yibing Wu
68th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#84
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
CHN
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Yibing Wu
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-4 6-1 |
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(5) 6-3 |