── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 81% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Alex De Minaur
81%19%
Hard: 78% / 22%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 82% / 18%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#8
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
AUS
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
Clay2–0
Grass1–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-2 6-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(5) 6-2 |
| 2025-04-14 | Barcelona | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2025-02-03 | Rotterdam | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 3-6 6-2 |
| 2023-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-04-18 | Barcelona | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(4) 7-6(4) 6-4 |