── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 95% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Adam Walton
95%5%
Hard: 94% / 6%
Clay: 99% / 1%
Grass: 98% / 2%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Adam Walton
47th · average
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Adam Walton
35th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#90
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
AUS
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Adam Walton
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Grass1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6(2) 6-2 |
| 2025-06-16 | Queen's Club | Grass | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 7-6(4) |