── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 87% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Valentin Vacherot
87%13%
Hard: 85% / 15%
Clay: 94% / 6%
Grass: 99% / 1%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Valentin Vacherot
87th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Valentin Vacherot
32th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#32
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
MON
183cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Valentin Vacherot
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |