── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 87% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Sebastian Korda
87%13%
Hard: 83% / 17%
Clay: 93% / 7%
Grass: 89% / 11%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Sebastian Korda
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#16
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
USA
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Sebastian Korda
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay2–1
Grass1–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Korda | 6-3 5-7 6-4 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2023-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-05-23 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-04-11 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Sebastian Korda | 7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-3 |
| 2021-11-08 | NextGen Finals | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-3(5) 4-2 4-2 |