── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 95% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Sebastian Baez
95%5%
Hard: 96% / 4%
Clay: 93% / 7%
Grass: 98% / 2%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Sebastian Baez
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#77
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ARG
183cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Sebastian Baez
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard3–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2025-09-24 | Tokyo | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-08-29 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 7-5 2-0 RET |
| 2021-11-08 | NextGen Finals | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-2 4-1 4-2 |